There's a saying in New England that if you don't like the weather, wait a minute. For residents of central Connecticut, this could ring true all winter.

Winter forecasts by the National Weather Service call for a "normal winter" in the Northeast this year - normal defined as 40 to 50 inches of snow - but the El Nino effect has made it difficult for meteorologists trying to predict patterns, said Gary Lessor, assistant director at the Western Connecticut State University Weather Center in Danbury.

"Generally a normal winter would be one with equal chances of warm and cold periods, but we are dealing with an unusual pattern known as the El Nino effect," Lessor said. "The early indications are that Connecticut residents could expect milder temperatures and maybe a little less snow over the course of the winter."

For those who prefer the milder weather, there have already been some positive signs. With no measurable snow so far this month and no storms predicted before the end of the month on Tuesday, Lessor said, statistical data suggests a quiet, relatively snow-free winter.

"Typically, if we go through November without snow, there is a 75 percent chance we will see less than the average amount of snowfall," Lessor said. "There are also a 12 percent chance we will have more snow than usual and a 12 percent chance we will have close to normal snowfall."

Although the season-long predictions are for milder weather, Lessor warns that the area could soon be in for a quick blast of winter, however. Long-range forecasts are calling for much colder temperatures in the early part of December, and Connecticut could be hit with a back-to-back storms. Those same predictions also indicate that snow could be wet because of that El Nino effect.

At the Mt. Southington Ski Area and for those in the snow removal business, a milder winter wouldn't necessarily be bad news - that is, as long as that early blast still comes.

"We always hope for a sustained period of colder weather and a few snowstorms early on with temperatures in the teens," said Edward Beckley, general manager at Mt. Southington. "We want some heavier snow to help create a solid base and with the right temperatures, a few storms of fluffy snow and our machines can make for a nice surface."

Beckley said despite needing some cold air, the ski area doesn't like to see temperatures drop too far because of concerns that it will be hard on their equipment and drive away customers. He said despite temperatures and snowfall, the mountain will work to provide the best conditions possible.

Mt. Southington is tentatively scheduled to open on Dec. 12, having already been forced to move the date from Dec. 6. It opened last year on Dec. 13.

David Vumback Jr., owner of Empire Construction snow removal in Meriden, said plow drivers could also benefit from early heavy snow.

"Last year we had a lot early and then it really tailed off. We could benefit from an early blast again this year," Vumback said. "If the snow stays heavy, we're more likely to get business, too. People will push a few inches of fluffy snow but they don't want to work through eight inches of slush."

Lessor isn't convinced that the long-term predictions will be accurate. Just a few weeks ago, forecasters called for a winter blast during the Thanksgiving Day weekend - a blast that never came.

"If there's any advice to give people, it'd be to enjoy those outdoor activities now because as the season progresses, things are likely to deteriorate," Lessor said. "In November, we have seen temperatures at 4.1 degrees above average and if forecasts for December are true, that won't hang around much longer."

jvallee@record-journal.com

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